Interactive Livestream Event: 2023 CAS Annual Meeting
NOVEMBER 6, 2022 - NOVEMBER 8, 2022
-ALL TIMES PACIFIC STANDARD TIME-
Thank you for registering for the 2023 CAS Annual Meeting Livestream. Please follow these instructions in order to view the livestreamed sessions:
- For the day that you registered, you will be asked to validate your access. You will only need to do this once in each room.
Please use the email address you registered with. - General sessions and concurrent sessions are divided into two different rooms. Head back to the Schedule page if you’d like to view content in a different room.
For Help, go to: CAS Annual Meeting Help or use the Help chat provided inthe bottom right corner of the site.
| 8:00 AM - 4:15 PM PST | Click Title to Join Room | |
| Complimentary Webcast Room | |
| 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM PST | Welcome, Celebration of New Members Description: All meeting attendees are invited and encouraged to attend this session — come celebrate the achievements of new CAS members!
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| 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM PST | BREAK | |
| 10:00 AM – 10:45 AM PST | Business Session/Presidential Address | |
| 10:45 AM – 11:45 AM PST | FS-1: Featured Speaker: The AI Cheat Code: How ChatGPT (and AI Tools) Will (and Won’t) Forever Alter Human Work Presenter(s): Alex Salkever, Writer, futurist and technology leader
Description: In 2022, AI finally broke through to the mainstream and began to impact in obvious and meaningful ways our work. ChatGPT took the world by storm and upended the status quo. High school students used it to write college essays. Respected news publications tried it out for original articles. Executives began to use it to draft emails. Marketers started using it to write blogs and social media posts. Its output was astonishingly convincing. Except when it was factually incorrect, unoriginal and formulaic. ChatGPT will make us far more efficient for many tasks. But it will not replace humans and usually will become an extension of their wisdom. And that’s the key to understanding AI writ large, and its role for the next five years — the cheat code. AI can give humans superpowers but you have to understand its limitations to unlock its true magic. This talk will trace the origins of AI, the incredible breakthroughs of Deep Learning and modern AI, cover the limitations of current AI and provide guidance and insight on how AI will change human work in the near and long-term — and what that might mean for you. |
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| 11:45 AM – 1:15 PM PST | BREAK | |
| 1:15 PM - 2:15 PM PST Click Title to Join Breakout Room (2 concurrent sessions) |
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| CS-31: The New Social Inflation — Litigation Finance and the Impact on Casualty Insurance Presenter(s): Graham Tibbets, FCAS, MAAA, Praedicat, Inc.; Julie Menken, ACAS, Praedicat, Inc.
Moderator: Guo Harrison Description: Third-party litigation funding in the United States is rapidly growing with current estimates approaching $16 billion a year. More than ever, actuaries must understand the dynamic nature of social inflation. This session will address how actuaries may better engage the changing macro environment for casualty insurance lines of business. |
CS-25: Pricing to Avoid the Winner's Curse Presenter(s): Justin N. Smith, MA, MPhil, PhD, MAAA, FCAS, Applied Underwriters, Inc.
Moderator: Frank Gribbon, FCAS, Verisk Description: The traditional actuarial approach to setting a price for insurance may invite what auction theorists call "the winner's curse"; a shortfall in expected profit below what the actuary projected. To avoid the winner's curse, careful attention should be paid to the required profit load and actuarial profit margin. |
| 2:15 PM – 2:45 PM PST | BREAK | |
| 2:45 PM - 3:45 PM PST Click Title to Join Breakout Room (2 concurrent sessions) |
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| CS-27: Reserving with Machine Learning Presenter(s): Julie Hagerstrand, KYROS Insights; Len Llaguno, FCAS, MAAA, KYROS
Moderator: Frank Gribbon, FCAS, Verisk Description: How is machine learning used for loyalty programs and what can it teach us about insurance claim reserving? While triangular methods have been a foundational tool for decades, individual claim reserving gives the actuary far more information about changes and trends in the liability. Yet the commonly used individual claim reserving techniques leave some of the most valuable data unexamined. In this session, we'll cover the benefits of reserving at the individual claim level and describe an approach that sits at the intersection of data science and actuarial science. This session will also introduce a new actuarial tool,the snapshot date triangle,and demonstrate how it can be combined with machine learning to produce a robust and powerful individual claim reserving system. You will learn why the snapshot date triangle was originally developed for estimating loyalty program liabilities and how it can be used in insurance contexts. |
CS-3: Bias, Fairness, and the Modeling Lifecycle Presenter(s): Craig A. Sloss, PhD, FCAS, FCIA, Definity Financial Corporation; Elizabeth Bellefleur-MacCaul, Definity Financial Corporation
Moderator: Emma Chen, FCAS, Wawanesa Insurance Company Description: In this session, we will describe one insurer's experience with integrating bias and fairness considerations into its predictive modelling plans. Our objective is to educate the audience on the practical considerations of operationalizing the bias and fairness concepts that have been the subject of presentations and research papers by the CAS and other organizations. We are members of a Working Group that has been spearheading efforts to increase adoption of bias and fairness checks by our company's predictive modelling teams. We will share some practices to achieve this goal and demonstrate their use through a case study. Examples of these practices include developing qualitative guidance on when and how to incorporate fairness considerations into a modelling project plan, ensuring that analysts have access to the technical tools they need to conduct bias tests, and developing supplementary in-house content to facilitate adoption of these tests throughout the model lifecycle. |
| 3:45 PM – 4:15 PM PST | BREAK | |
| 4:15 PM - 5:30 PM PST | General Session | |
| GS-1: Professionalizing Artificial Intelligence: Lessons from Actuarial Science Presenter(s): James Guszcza, FCAS, PhD, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences — Stanford
Moderator: Isaac Espinoza, Root, Inc. Description: Artificial Intelligence is often characterized in terms of “solving intelligence” or building machines that outperform humans at most economically meaningful work. But for scientific, economic, and societal reasons, this paradigm is likely to give way to a more design-focused paradigm of creating human-machine hybrid intelligence systems. This talk will sketch the Hybrid Intelligence paradigm, and discuss various ways in which the needed field of Hybrid Intelligence Systems Design must adopt traits characteristic of the actuarial profession: a respect for data limitations, an acknowledgment of the need to integrate algorithmic design and algorithmic indications with local knowledge and informed judgment; and an ethos of ethical behavior and public service. The discussion will be motivated by examples from insurance and other domains. |
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| 8:00 AM - 1:00 PM PST | Click Title to Join Room | |
| 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM PST | General Sessions (2 concurrent sessions) | |
| GS-2: California Dreaming: Earthquakes, Wildfire and Floods Presenter(s): Shawna Ackerman, MAAA, FCAS, California Earthquake Authority; Sheri Scott, FCAS, MAAA, CSPA, Milliman, Inc.; Andy Neal, FSA, Aon
Moderator: Carl Ashenbrenner, FCAS, MAAA, Milliman, Inc. Description: California is exposed to many catastrophes including earthquake, wildfire, and floods. This session will explore the risks of these catastrophes as well as the resilience efforts put forth to diminish these perils. Many of these risks are uninsured. While California will be the focus, other states and countries with similar risks will be discussed during this session. The first section will explore earthquake risk (including fire following) and discuss mitigation efforts from a large event. The next section will discuss the recent atmospheric river and resulting flooding risks. The final section will discuss recent wildfires and changes designed to limit this potential catastrophe. This session will conclude with a discussion and questions from the audience of these topics with a forward-looking approach about what the industry and actuarial profession can do in response to these catastrophic risks. |
GS-3: Insurance and Emerging Risk in the Entertainment Industry Presenter(s): Peter Williams, Fellow of the Chartered Insurance Institute of London, Allianz Ins Co; Matthew Ruffner, The Walt Disney Company
Moderator: Robert F. Wolf, FCAS, CERA, MAAA, Stonetrust Insurance Group Description: Emerging risks could be due to changes in customer preferences, or changes in technological advancement. That is just to name a couple. In the entertainment industry, we can now have a choice of watching movies at the theaters, on television, or on our phones. We can have ourselves CGI’d when we are no longer here or even if we were, not at the same age. How are these and other trends changing the economics and the eco-system in the entertainment industry. This session will cover unique insurance in the entertainment industry and the emerging risks that the industry is facing. The purpose of production insurance is to protect a filmmaker’s investment and typically covers traditional property and liability exposures from development to the final cut. Completing a successful film is no easy task and no matter how careful you are, mishaps and accidents are bound to happen. What are the identified emerging risks in this industry in our changing world? The panel will be discussing these and other topics. Join us as we take a deep dive into exploring the emerging risks of this prominent and most interesting sector that we all love. |
| 9:15 AM – 9:45 AM PST | BREAK | |
| 9:45 AM - 10:45 AM PST Click Title to Join Breakout Room (2 concurrent sessions) |
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| CS-18: How to Properly Vet Natural Catastrophe Models Presenter(s): Howard A. Kunst, FCAS MAAA CCRMP, CoreLogic; Matt Chamberlain, FCAS, MAAA, CSPA, Milliman
Moderator: Wenwen Sun, ACAS, Verisk Description: Catastrophe models are widely used in the insurance industry. Initially, they were primarily used on the portfolio level but increasingly they are being used for pricing individual risks. The kinds of standard validation that are suitable for aggregate level analysis are not sufficient when using them for this purpose. A key question for both pricing actuaries and regulators is how to vet such emerging models and what are the best practices on how to use them. In this session we will look at practical techniques to evaluate model output for reasonability with an emphasis on location level output. Techniques will be described both for instances when the user has access to a single model and when the user has access to multiple models. The approaches described will lean heavily on the use of geographic information systems and will describe how building models based on catastrophe model output can give us greater insight into how the models work. The approaches that will be described are capable of being implemented by an actuary at a company or department of insurance who does not have the resources to validate each step of the modeling process. |
CS-22: Modeling Medical Inflation Presenter(s): Frank A. Schmid, Gen Re
Moderator: Guo Harrison Description: It is shown that headline PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) inflation (which is the Federal Reserve's official inflation measure) has strong random walk properties, and so does the Health Care component of PCE inflation. It is then demonstrated how to model Health Care inflation as a function of headline inflation in an error-correction model. The long-term relation between Health Care inflation and headline inflation is derived. The error-correction model and the resulting long-term relation allows the actuary to derive projections for Health Care inflation based on the Federal Reserve's inflation projections. |
| 10:45 AM – 11:15 AM PST | BREAK | |
| Complimentary Webcast Room | |
| 11:15 AM – 12:15 PM PST | Town Hall with CAS Leaders: The Actuary of the Future Description: The CAS Strategic Plan’s Envisioned Future foresees that CAS members are sought after globally for their insights and ability to apply analytics to solve insurance and risk management problems. While that sounds like a bold vision, the CAS already has many members among its ranks that embody the “Actuary of the Future.” These are actuaries who have solved big problems faced by their employers or principals by acting courageously and thinking creatively in the application of their actuarial skills. Ultimately, these actuaries bring value to their organizations in ways that haven’t been done before.
Join this Town Hall discussion with CAS leaders for an interactive discussion on why the CAS is focused on this strategic direction and how it is evolving to build more actuaries of the future. CAS leaders will be joined by CAS members who already represent that future, who will share their experiences with attendees and what it takes to be known not just as actuaries, but as go-to problem solvers for any risk management challenge. Attendees will be encouraged to provide their feedback on the CAS’s direction and to share their own experiences and the opportunities they see for expanding the demand of the actuarial skill set. |
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| 12:15 PM – 1:30 PM PST | BREAK | |
| 1:30 PM - 1:55 PM PST Click Title to Join Quick Byte Room |
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| QB-1: Recruitment and Retention in Today's Labor Market Presenter(s): Alicia Morris, The Jacobson Group
Description: The insurance talent landscape has evolved significantly in the past three years. A talent shortage, shifting employee expectations and long-term hybrid work environments are all impacting how organizations effectively attract and retain actuarial talent. How can leaders best position their teams for ongoing success? This session will discuss the current state of the actuarial talent marketplace, explore its challenges, and provide insight on staying competitive now and into the future. |
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| 1:55 PM - 2:20 PM PST Click Title to Join Quick Byte Room |
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| QB-2: Email Security - Analyzing Cyber Insurance Claims Presenter(s): Matthew Actipes, FCAS, At-Bay
Description: Choosing which email security products to employ is a challenging task for an organization, especially with limited resources or security expertise. It is easy to believe that security products help, but to what extent are they worth the investment, and which products are the most effective? Those questions can be difficult to answer by experts, let alone individual businesses - but becomes easier with the aid of insurance data. This presentation explores the results of an investigation into the frequency of email-related cyber incidents among insureds who use specific email security solutions to protect their organizations from cyber criminals. We will also discuss the methods for obtaining such data and the unique challenges in assessing cyber risk as compared to other lines of business. |
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| 2:20 PM – 2:50 PM PST | BREAK | |
| 2:50 PM - 3:15 PM PST Click Title to Join Quick Byte Room |
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| QB-3: Continuous Data Storytelling: Automated Analytics Presenter(s): Scott Gibson, FCAS, MAAA, WTW
Description: What if analyses could constantly absorb new information as it became available? How does it change the frame of reference and create advantages for the actuary, their work and their company? Let's talk about the next evolution of workflows and capabilities. |
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| 3:15 PM - 3:40 PM PST Click Title to Join Quick Byte Room |
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| QB-4: How Generative AI leverages Cloud Computing for Insurance Companies Presenter(s): Marcela Granados, FCAS, CSPA, Databricks; Martin Lavoie, FSA, MetLife
Description: Insurance companies are either curious about the capabilities and technology behind Generative AI, or at a stage where they are willing to invest to get a first mover advantage. However, there are inherent risks associated with it, which positions an opportunity for actuaries to embrace this and mitigate the risks while maintaining proper actuarial standards of practice. Also, given the heavy use of unstructured data and large volumes of data, the power of cloud computing and end to end data platforms become the foundation to do Generative AI the right way. |
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| 8:00 AM - 1:00 PM PST | Click Title to Join Room | |
| 8:00 AM - 9:00 AM PST Click Title to Join Breakout Room (2 concurrent sessions) |
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| CS-21: Is That Credible? Presenter(s): Ruoshu Chen, Waymo; Sam Tashima, FCAS, MAAA, MBA, Aon; Zoe Rico, FCAS, MAAA, Aon
Moderator: Frank Gribbon, FCAS, Verisk Description: 1082 is a recognizable number to most actuaries as the number of claims needed for a data set to be considered fully credible. But is your data less credible because you have fewer claims? If your data represents a risk that is safer than the current standard, can you show that lack of claims is also credible or drives greater signal that a different set of data? Thinking about claims is just one way to establish a credible data set, but we also need to evaluate the underlying exposure (either large or small) that's the basis for the claims. Our panel will discuss alternative ways for assigning credibility to a data set, as well as additional considerations and limitations with the alternatives. We will also explore the compliment of credibility as assigning credibility to your data set is only part of the problem for new and emerging risks. |
CS-23: Open to Debate - When am I Qualified? Presenter(s): Pat Teufel, FCAS, MAAA; Esther Becker, ACAS, MAAA, Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting; Peter Royek, Eide Bailey, LLP
Moderator: Esther Becker, ACAS, MAAA, Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting Description: In this session we will conduct a very interactive debate-style discussion of examples of which subject areas are unique or different enough to require additional education or supervised experience to be in compliance with the updated USQS, in effect as of January 1, 2022. Come prepared to think through this interesting topic, interact and have fun! |
| 9:00 AM – 9:30 AM PST | BREAK | |
| 9:30 AM - 10:30 AM PST Click Title to Join Breakout Room (2 concurrent sessions) |
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| CS-2: Adapting for Unusual Scenarios in Auto Indications: COVID & Inflation Presenter(s): Jeffrey (Yosef) Katzman, FCAS, The Cincinnati Insurance Companies; Fei Zeng, PhD, FCAS, The Cincinnati Insurance Companies
Moderator: Isaac Espinoza, Root, Inc. Description: Estimating Personal Auto rate indications has been particularly challenging during the past three years due to several factors. First, the COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions to driving habits and claim frequencies, wreaking havoc on frequency trends. Second, inflation — both in the general economy and specific to the auto market and repair industry — caused claim severities to rapidly increase, distorting the severity trends. This session will explain how our we modified our indication methodology to adapt to the unusual trend environment to help us predict future rate need. |
CS-9: Data is Perfect and Analyses are Automated: Now What? Presenter(s): Claudine Modlin; Eric Blancke; Paul Kardosh, CPCU, AIG; Taralyn Slusarski, Deloitte Consulting; Vera Sakalova, Deloitte Consulting
Moderator: Alice Xiang, Deloitte Consulting Description: Actuaries are sought for business advice in areas such as reserve management, navigating regulatory environments, and driving pricing sophistication. With the escalating importance of data-driven insights, automation of routine work, and democratization of analytics, solidifying the role of actuaries as influential business advisors has never been more critical. In this session, we will explore areas where actuaries drive value for their organizations. Using real-life examples we'll focus on what matters to business executive stakeholders and the capabilities that will allow actuaries to gain and hold their proverbial seat at the table. |
| 10:30 AM – 11:00 AM PST | BREAK | |
| 11:00 AM - 12:15 PM PST | General Session | |
| GS-4: Conversations with California Industry Leaders Presenter(s): Edward D. Cimini, Jr., ACAS, MAAA, California Department of Insurance, United States; Rex Frazier, Personal Insurance Federation of California; Victoria Roach; Doug Heller, MPA, Consumer Federation of America
Moderator: Steven D. Armstrong, FCAS, MAAA, MBA, Allstate Insurance Company Description: The California property and casualty insurance market has been making the news in 2023 and this session will host industry experts from the California Department of Insurance, the Consumer Federation of America, the California FAIR Plan Association, and the Personal Insurance Federation of California who will discuss current events and answer audience questions. Specific focus will be placed on discussing the California property market and availability, affordability and pricing of property products. |
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